Ameenullah1, Abdulaziz Thabet Dabiah 2, Raza Ullah3, Syed Muhammad Khair4, Syed Sadiq Agha5, Rizwan Khan6, Muhammad Muddassir 2* and Mortala Boye7
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Balochistan Agriculture College, Quetta, Pakistan; 2Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Society, College of Food and Agriculture Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia; 3Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan; 4Faculty of Agricultural Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan; 5Value Chain Specialist, FAO; 6Agriculture Production Specialist, FAO; 7School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of The Gambia, P. O Box 3530, Serekunda, The Gambia
*Corresponding author: mrajpoot@ksu.edu.sa
Balochistan, Pakistan's arid south-western province, is experiencing a severe groundwater crisis, with levels falling by 5-40 feet per year due to an overreliance on tube wells for irrigation. This depletion endangers agricultural sustainability, particularly given the government's solarization policy, which aims to convert approximately 28,000 grid-connected tube wells to solar power. For the rural societies of Balochistan, groundwater is not merely an agricultural input but the singular economic lifeline upon which household income, food security, and intergenerational livelihoods are anchored, making any policy that alters extraction dynamics a matter of acute socioeconomic consequence. The socioeconomic fragility of these communities means they are simultaneously the primary drivers of groundwater stress and the most exposed to its depletion, a duality that demands urgent empirical attention. To date, no comprehensive research has been conducted to assess the impact of solar-powered electric tube wells (ETs) on groundwater resources in Balochistan. Combining farmers’ perceptions with binary logistic regression analysis, this cross-sectional study was conducted during 2023 in three over-exploited highland basins of Balochistan – the Zhob River Basin (ZRB), the Nari River Basin (NRB) and the Pishin Lora Basin (PLB) – where water tables are falling by 10–40 feet per year. Using binary logistic regression on primary data collected from 320 proportionately stratified respondents, the study finds that solarization is the strongest single predictor of groundwater depletion (β = 3.143, odds ratio ≈ 23.2, P<0.01), while farmers’ age (β = 0.057, P<0.01), irrigation frequency (β = 1.768, P<0.01) and water-table depth (β = 0.004, P<0.01) also significantly accelerate depletion; conversely, larger cultivated area is associated with more conservative water use (β = −0.103, P<0.01), whereas adoption of high-efficiency irrigation systems (HEIS) alone remains statistically insignificant (β = −0.695, p = 0.159). Unconditioned solarization will negatively impact the province's shallow aquifers, potentially leading to intergenerational disputes among key basin residents. To address this paradox, the study suggests combining solarization with mandatory HEIS adoption, implementing net-metering for solar wells, and improving water governance to protect shallow aquifers and ensure the long-term viability of agriculture in Balochistan.