Insecurity and Agricultural Decline in Nigeria: Political and Economic Effects of Kidnapping and Farmer–Herder Conflicts in Ika South LGA, Delta State

EJOVI AUSTINE

POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT, UNIVERSITY OF DELTA, AGBOR

augustine.ejovi@unidel.edu.ng

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Abstract

Insecurity has become a major constraint to agricultural productivity and rural development in Nigeria, particularly in agrarian communities. This study investigates the political and economic effects of kidnapping and farmer–herder conflicts on agricultural decline in Ika South Local Government Area of Delta State. A cross-sectional survey research design was adopted, and primary data were collected from 200 respondents comprising farmers, traders, and community leaders. Descriptive statistics and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) were employed for data analysis. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) value of 0.842 and Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity (?² = 1756.34, p < 0.001) confirmed the adequacy of the data for factor analysis. Three key factors were extracted: economic disruption, social displacement, and governance failure, explaining 74.6% of total variance. Findings reveal that insecurity significantly reduces agricultural productivity through farm abandonment, crop destruction, and restricted market access. Kidnapping discourages rural labor participation, while farmer–herder conflicts lead to land degradation and displacement of farming households. The study also finds that insecurity contributes to rising food prices and weakened governance structures. These findings are consistent with existing literature.The study concludes that insecurity is a critical driver of agricultural decline in Ika South and poses serious threats to food security and economic stability. It recommends strengthening rural security systems, improving land-use policies, and enhancing government intervention.


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