Iqra Ameen , Muhammad Kashif *, Hafiza Nayab Hameed and Hafiza Nida
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Agriculture, Faisal'abad, Pakistan
*Corresponding author: mkashif@uaf.edu.pk
The objective of this research is to analyze trends in extreme daily temperature and precipitation indices at six meteorological stations in Punjab, including Faisalabad, Khanpur, Lahore, Sialkot, Mianwali, and Murree. Climate indices were calculated using rainfall and temperature data from 1991 to 2022, using the RClimpact2 R software package. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to assess trends. The results show an upward trend in very warm days (TX95t) and warm nights (TN90p) across all stations. However, other indicators such as summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90), the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), maximum and minimum temperatures (TXx, TNn), diurnal temperature range (DTR), cool days (TX10p), cool nights (TN10p) and spell duration indicator (SPI) displayed variability. Similarly, precipitation indices, including Simple rainfall intensity index (SDII), Max 1-day rainfall amount (RX1day), Max 5-day rainfall amount RX5day), Number of heavy rainfall days (R10), Number of very heavy rainfall days (R20), consecutive dry days (CDD), Consecutive wet days (CWD), Very wet days (R95p), Extremely wet days (R99p) and annual total wet-day rainfall (PRCPTOT) showed mixed trends across the stations. Most of these trends were not statistically significant at the 0.05 level, although an increase in maximum daytime temperature was observed at five of the six stations. The findings suggest that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are minor and inconsistent, both temporally and spatially. There is a crucial need for more comprehensive annual data from a broader range of weather stations in Punjab to evaluate ongoing and significant climatic changes in the region.