Saba Zafar , Muhammad Kashif *, Muhammad Imran Khan and Hafiza Nida
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
*Corresponding author: mkashif@uaf.edu.pk
Weather forecasting has been getting more attention from researchers and becoming influential factor for effective policy and planning at local and global level. Climatic variations have been directly affected by global warming and happened to rise atmospheric temperature; as the temperature of earth has been increased by 0.74°C during last 100 years. In Pakistan, daily environmental temperature has been increasing; on average there is 0.6°C rise of daily environmental temperature has been observed. The present research has focused on the modeling and forecasting about daily temperature of Faisalabad and Lahore districts of Punjab, Pakistan. It is found that simple exponential technique is more appropriate technique for modeling the temperature data as compared to other methods such as Holt's exponential and Holt's winter exponential techniques. The forecasting of temperature data was made on the optimum value of smoothing constant. The selection of optimal smoothing constant was based on the minimum values of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The application of simple exponential technique is therefore recommended for considering to predict about the climatic variables like rainfall, humidity and wind speed because of its forecasting accuracy for short term period. This research will be helpful for researchers and policy makers who are associated with environment-based work.